Compositional Analysis of Fire Outbreaks in Riau: El Niño, IOD Positive, and Easterly Monsoon as Key Amplifiers of Peatland Fire Risk
Keywords:
Peatland Fires, Climate Variability, Monsoon, Sumatra, RiauAbstract
Peatland fires in Riau Province, Indonesia, pose significant environmental and public health risks. Although large-scale climate drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Australian Monsoon (AUSMI) are known to influence fire activity, the relative importance of continuous index values versus discrete climate phases remains insufficiently understood. This study utilized active fire observations from the NASA VIIRS (VNP14A1) product and identified the top 20 most extensive fire outbreak months over the period from January 2012 to December 2025. Linear regression analysis was first applied to evaluate relationships between fire activity and continuous Niño 3.4, Dipole Mode Index (DMI), and AUSMI values. Subsequently, a phase-based compositional analysis was conducted on the 20 largest fire events, classifying each event according to ENSO (El Niño/La Niña), IOD (positive/negative), and AUSMI (Easterly/Westerly) phases. Results indicate consistently weak linear relationships (r² ≤ 0.051), suggesting limited explanatory power of continuous indices. In contrast, phase-based analysis reveals strong dominance patterns, with 70% of events occurring during El Niño, 60% during positive IOD, and 90% during the Easterly Monsoon. These findings demonstrate that fire occurrence is governed by multi-scale interactions, where the Easterly Monsoon defines the seasonal window for fire activity, while ENSO and IOD act as amplifying factors. The results highlight the superiority of phase-based approaches over index-only methods for understanding and predicting peatland fire dynamics, providing a more robust foundation for early warning and mitigation strategies.
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